Staking Plan For Betting

Maria Staking Plan By The Numbers + Maria Staking Plan Spreadsheet | Football Advisor

5 Star Bot is a web based automated betting software for Betfair. It is the ultimate solution for your betting strategies that saves time and efforts, protects from mistakes and gives you the edge over other punters. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2.16) of our free Excel betting.

The Maria Staking Plan By The Numbers

In our previous post, we took an in-depth look at the origins and story behind “Maria Staking Plan”. If you missed it, you can read it here.

Today we are going to go a little deeper into the numbers and mathematics behind this approach. While at the end of today's article you'll be able to download a free copy of our Maria Staking Plan Spreadsheet for you to use.

Over the next few days we are going to unpick what is known about the Maria Staking Plan, separating the fact from the fiction, where best we can.

We are also going to take on the challenge of attempting to apply (successfully) the Maria Staking Plan to the football betting world – and if you stay with us over the next few days, you'll also have the opportunity to join us on the journey.

By The Numbers – The Maria Staking Plan

As we discovered last time, it was designed to enable her betting profits to be compounded, thus growing the bank in a quicker, more accelerated way.

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank – backer’s stake £30 (max liability under £75)

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank – backer’s stake £18 (max liability £46.80 – £115.20)

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank – backer’s stake £12 (max liability £78 – £132)

Maria Staking Plan Rules

Rule 1 – Adjust Your Stake Based On The Odds

If Bet 1 the odds are 8. The Stake is 0.4% of £3000 which is £12.
If Bet 1 the odds are 4. The Stake is 0.6% of £3000 which is £18.
If Bet 1 the odds are 2.5. The Stake is 1% of £3000 which is £30.
If Bet 1 the odds are 12. The Stake is 0% of £3000 which is £0.

Staking Plan For Betting Rules

Rule 2 – If making profits, the stakes are increased on a daily basis in proportion to the betting bank on a daily basis

For instance, if after day 1 the betting bank is at £3300 then 1% would now be £33 rather than £30

Rule 3 – If after a days betting the cumulative betting bank has decreased the stakes are left alone unless 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost.

If this occurs then the stakes are re-calculated based on the new “65%-sized bank” For example if your using £3000 as your starting betting bank, you would keep the same stakes used until your betting bank went below £1,950 when those backer’s stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or – even down to £1267.50 – a further 35% loss). The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank.

Maria Staking Plan – Original Thread

Sadly the Expert Betting Forum is no longer in existence. However, those great people at Wayback Machine, have managed to capture the original thread for posterity.

Staking Plan For Lay Betting

If you are interested in revisiting 2005 and see how it all unfolded first timeout, you can access the Maria Staking Plan Original Thread here.

Maria Staking Plan – Is It Possible

Staking Plan For Place Betting

If you are considering taking up the Maria Staking Plan challenge then there are a few factors to consider before commencing.

(1). Do you have an Edge?

There is no point in just randomly picking selections and applying the staking plan. Unless you have a clear method and a belief that you have a real edge then this will not work for you and you will lose money.

As we've mentioned previously, this is not a solution to making money. A staking plan is only as good as the selections being applied to it. It won't make a losing model profitable.

(2) Strike Rates

With a model such as this the ability to achieve consistent and high strike rates is paramount. Maria achieved an 85% strike rate and you would need to be able to do something similar.

By our estimates, you would need at least an 80% strike rate and more likely somewhere in the region of 83-85%+.

If Maria's strike rate had dropped to even just 75% she would have lost plenty and wiped out her bank pretty quickly.

(3) Don't be greedy

We all see the big 100k figure and dream of achieving that. But unless you have plenty of money to spare, putting £3,000 is not wise. It is a high risk, high reward approach.

A much smarter approach would be to use a more affordable figure, such as £300 (affordable may mean something different to you, so please adjust to suit your own financial circumstances), and targeting £10,000 initially.

If successful, you could bank some profit and THEN set aside the £3,000 bank. In fact, you don't even need to target the £10,000. You could collect and start again at much lower benchmarks.

But the most important part is that you start with a bank you are expecting and able to lose, even if that is just £50.00.

(4) Stick To The Rules

Naturally, you need to stick to the rules as proposed unless you have your own take on the approach, but even then, stick to your original rules all the way through.

(5) Have fun

Something like the Maria Staking Plan is as much about the fun of the challenge. Great if you do succeed or even come close to succeeding. But I feel you start something like this with the expectation to lose – and you should set your betting bank as such.

Remember, many have tried and many have failed in trying to replicate what Maria did.

It's not to say it is impossible. We do believe it is possible with an edge and a little luck on variance. You just need to keep all these factors in mind before beginning.

Best Staking Plan For Place Betting

Can The Maria Staking Plan Be Automated?

I'm pleased to say that at YES, the staking plan can be automated. Here at Football Advisor, we use BF Bot Manager for most of our betting and BF Bot Manager comes with Maria Staking Plan built in by default.

And here is an sample of one of the tests I've completed using this Maria Staking Plan setting in BF Bot Manager:

Maria Staking Plan Spreadsheet

If you are not currently a BF Bot Manager user and simply prefer to place you bets manually, you may be looking for a spreadsheet to help you keep accurate records if you ever decide to put the Maria Staking Plan to the test.

If so, I'm pleased to saw that Football Advisor team have you got you covered and you can download the Maria Staking Plan spreadsheet here. It is completely free but remember it is solely for your own personal use.

DOWNLOAD: MARIA STAKING PLAN SPREADSHEET

What's Next?

In our next, and final, look at the Maria Staking Plan we're going to break down for you a football lay betting strategy that we feel has the right criteria to stand a decent chance of being able to achieve something similar to Maria.

More on this in a few days but in the meantime, don't forget to download your free copy of the Maria Staking Plan Spreadsheet

Jon is the Founder and Chief Tipster at Football Advisor and Predictoloy. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting.

Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting.

In 2014, Jon also launched (and continues to run) the trusted Football Advisor service service which provides a variety of football and horse racing betting models and portfolios. A few years later, Jon launched the Predictology platform which is the worlds first betting system builder and analyser covering a wealth of football betting related statistics covering more than 200,000 matches.

Jon has also lent his knowledge and expertise to several of the trusted Premium Services offered by the respected Secret Betting Club, including Football Lay Profits. Racing Bet Profits and, most recently, Racing Lay Profits.

The Staking Machine or TSM for Short is a Professional Sports Betting Tool. It is a Cutting-Edge, Bet Tracking, Staking Plan and System Analysis Tool. Available for Windows Desktop as well as Browser Based Web App.

Evaluation version of TSM is restricted to 10 bets at any one time. No time restrictions in place.

Record All Your Bets in one place
No need for cumbersome spreadsheets
Run Multiple Selection Systems
Over 40 Staking Plans Included
Import/Export Data Features

Analyse all your historical bets in detail
Increase your betting profits
Optimise your Staking Plan
Avoid Bankruptcy
Lower your risk exposure

Staking Plans For Horse Racing Betting

Available for Windows Desktop or Browser Based (TSMapp)
Access TSMapp from any modern device with a web browser

The Staking Machine is the Must Have Bet Tracking and Staking Plan Analysis Tool

41 Staking Plans

One Click is all it takes to switch staking plans and see if you could have increased profits by making a few simple changes. Each Staking Plan is fully Editable.

Random Bet Generator

Generate thousands of Random Bet Data to simulate your own bet selection systems.

Monte Carlo Simulations

Shuffle your data thousands of times and find out if your results are a one off or can be the general expectation of future results. Is your staking plan high risk or low risk ? The results can be displayed in a frequency distribution graph of cumulative total plotted against frequency. Fantastic resource when used properly.

Copy Paste Import Wizard

The Staking Machine includes an Import Wizard Feature that allows you to import your past data. You can simply copy/paste from Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice. Or you can load CSV/TXT files directly into TSM.

Convert from SP to BSP and Vice Versa

In TSM we use several quadratic equations to estimate the Betfair SP. Our research has shown this to be over 3 times as accurate. The formulas used take into account over 4000 horse racing tipster selections as recorded in racing-index.

Apply Filters

The Staking Machine allows you to filter your bet data. You can filter on strings in the Horse/Selection Column aswell as filtering on Odds ranges. Multiple filters can be applied at the same time. Can be an eye opener if you have never looked at this before.

Quick Stats

The Staking Machine displays all your vital statistics on the fly. These include - Total Bets, Total Wins, Strike Rate, Required Strike Rate, Average Odds, Average Win Odds, Expected Losing Sequence (E.L.S.), Standard Deviation, Edge, Current Winning Sequence, Current Losing Sequence, Longest Win Sequence and Longest Losing Sequence.

Numerous Graphs

Cumulative Total, Sequences Stats, Draw Down, Monte Carlo Frequency Distribution, Edge and Odds Frequency Graphs all available.